Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.509525 24.646937 29.190621 34.522960 40.580595 47.219584 55.016340
2025-10-12 14.755256 20.258948 26.908290 35.408922 45.855608 58.141035 73.537848
2025-10-19 11.408430 17.446714 25.310611 36.031671 49.975345 67.196163 89.742403
2025-10-26 9.280794 15.597054 24.367779 36.975659 54.131871 76.141239 105.928013
2025-11-02 7.328447 13.528001 22.690799 36.536066 56.173064 82.237251 118.553924
2025-11-09 6.003164 12.099227 21.638670 36.706390 58.858650 89.123833 132.332438
2025-11-16 4.882371 10.751302 20.467536 36.480999 60.829951 94.993952 144.857780
2025-11-23 3.861704 9.344283 18.969028 35.529228 61.563380 99.051015 154.938500
2025-11-30 3.358396 8.784712 18.773372 36.553009 65.234541 107.357911 171.167348
2025-12-07 2.721085 7.807289 17.700429 36.001353 66.384552 111.986128 182.274559
2025-12-14 2.307298 7.202801 17.204989 36.338698 68.895234 118.662319 196.492798
2025-12-21 1.766501 6.157237 15.708483 34.757272 68.156523 120.350544 203.400659
2025-12-28 1.550767 5.881734 15.754930 36.053746 72.418517 130.141131 223.109007
2026-01-04 1.323100 5.512384 15.561435 36.900905 76.001261 139.078839 241.946551
2026-01-11 1.117087 5.133920 15.282499 37.539467 79.233275 147.560325 260.336309
2026-01-18 0.963286 4.859595 15.188568 38.513546 83.081137 157.141172 280.677691
2026-01-25 0.761389 4.340799 14.429954 38.059817 84.320538 162.505348 294.594561
2026-02-01 0.623908 3.986498 14.004628 38.235614 86.684950 169.767322 311.663919
2026-02-08 0.495853 3.600054 13.421823 38.002977 88.248407 175.715704 326.777378
2026-02-15 0.370290 3.140513 12.545711 37.020495 88.303729 179.081658 337.802276
2026-02-22 0.320610 3.013435 12.576865 38.077304 92.331619 189.353050 360.260782
2026-03-01 0.243455 2.680750 11.936307 37.507877 93.121168 194.029284 373.673722
2026-03-08 0.197896 2.492600 11.696373 37.856096 95.740536 201.967924 392.639845